Starting to consider reducing my holding.
A few things are niggling at me:
- How much of the 1Q21 export growth is from the two NZ businesses acquired in 2Q20?
- How much is excessive restocking after the mar-apr collapse and sudden surprise surge in demand?
- What happens to the market multiple when a vaccine is released and the world travel market slowly starts to normalise?
- What happens to the market multiple when growth rates return to long term averages? Or even below long term averages for a few years after the domestic car holiday fad inevitably fades.
- What happens to the market multiple if 10 year gov bond rates rise at some point over say the next 5 years?
- What happens when tradies decide they probably should'nt spend too much more dough on their utes?
The large short-term step up changes in demand, market multiples and exchange tailwinds can easily become gradual step down changes as growth reverts to mean.
I am a bit of a worry wart, but further sustained risk to the upside has to be weighed against the potential for medium term downside risks.
I note the trailing P/E multiple is now higher that CSL's.
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Last
$38.26 |
Change
-0.380(0.98%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.150B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$38.35 | $38.72 | $37.68 | $8.240M | 215.9K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 576 | $38.20 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$38.26 | 1117 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 576 | 38.200 |
1 | 10 | 38.070 |
2 | 596 | 38.030 |
1 | 419 | 38.010 |
1 | 419 | 37.970 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.260 | 941 | 3 |
38.300 | 1560 | 2 |
38.340 | 419 | 1 |
38.350 | 471 | 1 |
38.380 | 180 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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