Starting to consider reducing my holding.
A few things are niggling at me:
- How much of the 1Q21 export growth is from the two NZ businesses acquired in 2Q20?
- How much is excessive restocking after the mar-apr collapse and sudden surprise surge in demand?
- What happens to the market multiple when a vaccine is released and the world travel market slowly starts to normalise?
- What happens to the market multiple when growth rates return to long term averages? Or even below long term averages for a few years after the domestic car holiday fad inevitably fades.
- What happens to the market multiple if 10 year gov bond rates rise at some point over say the next 5 years?
- What happens when tradies decide they probably should'nt spend too much more dough on their utes?
The large short-term step up changes in demand, market multiples and exchange tailwinds can easily become gradual step down changes as growth reverts to mean.
I am a bit of a worry wart, but further sustained risk to the upside has to be weighed against the potential for medium term downside risks.
I note the trailing P/E multiple is now higher that CSL's.
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$37.04 |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 414 | 36.920 |
3 | 768 | 36.890 |
1 | 1005 | 36.870 |
1 | 414 | 36.850 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
37.100 | 354 | 2 |
37.120 | 414 | 1 |
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