Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

ARB

Click for more information

0.89%

$38.64 arb corporation limited.

Reduced 2.3% to 1.7% of portfolio (includes super)

First 19 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
vic_wattle

3,481 Posts.

99

15/10/20

10:08

Post #: 48108197
Share

Originally posted by vic_wattle ↑

Starting to consider reducing my holding.

A few things are niggling at me:
- How much of the 1Q21 export growth is from the two NZ businesses acquired in 2Q20?
- How much is excessive restocking after the mar-apr collapse and sudden surprise surge in demand?
- What happens to the market multiple when a vaccine is released and the world travel market slowly starts to normalise?
- What happens to the market multiple when growth rates return to long term averages? Or even below long term averages for a few years after the domestic car holiday fad inevitably fades.
- What happens to the market multiple if 10 year gov bond rates rise at some point over say the next 5 years?
- What happens when tradies decide they probably should'nt spend too much more dough on their utes?

The large short-term step up changes in demand, market multiples and exchange tailwinds can easily become gradual step down changes as growth reverts to mean.

I am a bit of a worry wart, but further sustained risk to the upside has to be weighed against the potential for medium term downside risks.

I note the trailing P/E multiple is now higher that CSL's.

View attachment 2554880

Expand

Reduced 2.3% to 1.7% of portfolio (includes super)

ARB Price at posting: $32.62 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

LSR

From the Floor question: "Why are you going back to Ned's Creek for a drilling campaign?" | Lodestar Minerals

MiningNews Select Conference: Smooth permitting, strong teams the key to project success and reaching demand

SS1

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

ASX Market Close: Index gains 1% after interest rates pause | June 18, 2024

MiningNews Select Conference: Look further afield for funding projects, advises Rick Rule

There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...

First 19 Last

Add ARB (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $38.64		Change 0.340(0.89%)		Mkt cap ! $3.181B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$38.80	$39.19	$38.63	$6.859M	176.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	257	$38.64

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$38.72	311	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	6737	38.630
1	397	38.600
2	583	38.570
1	397	38.560
1	1164	38.550

Price($)	Vol.	No.
38.720	311	1
38.800	583	2
38.850	141	1
38.910	397	1
38.950	397	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 18/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

ARB (ASX) Chart

SPONSORED BY