Hi VYR. Best to do your own research, as there is a lot of data...

Hi VYR. Best to do your own research, as there is a lot of data out there on the 2-wheel market. VMT imo are in danger of believing their own PR, which is a deadly sin in business !

Let me use a simple analogy to give some flavour to what is going on, and what the opportunity really is. 10 years or so ago we were all using traditional incandescent light bulbs, yet today due to the arrival of disruptive technology supported by regulatory intervention just about all new light bulbs are LEDs. A revolution in 10 years ! The same is about to happen with transportation of all types, and within a decade probably all new private transportation will be electric, or at least non-ice, with a typically sharp S-curve which is already starting to show (we are just on the exciting lower upward curve right now). There is a remarkably similar co-incidence of disruptive technology and regulatory intervention to that which drove the light-bulb revolution.

So the market opportunity we are looking at is the total E2V market, not just the discreet and tiny segment that VMT feels comfortable in today, and the biggest opportunity is in the inevitable conversion of ice to electric. There are a lot of numbers and estimates from reputable organisations, and however much conservatism to want to build-in the opportunity remains huge. Probably there are over 250 million bikes of all types Worldwide, and the estimate for 2020 sales (which were down more than 10% due to C-19) was over 50 million units. Ball-park estimates for electric bikes of all types are in the region of 10-15 million by 2025.

By those numbers VMT currently has a total share of the total new bike market of maybe 0.06%, and if we assume that on current growth trends the Company can achieve sales of 70,000 units by 2025, then at that point it will hold around 0.6% of the electric bike market, which is no base from which to be any kind of a major player. Massage the numbers however you like but they represent an opportunity wasted imo.

The 'good news', and the reason that I stay invested, is that the real players (Honda if you like) already have firm plans for how and when they will introduce major changes to their production lines and product offerings to take advantage of the inevitable transformation to electric power, and as these introductions happen the market will simply be driven to electric, probably at a pace some may find hard to comprehend (just like light bulbs), because frankly there will be no alternative. The effect of this will be to create huge demand for electric bikes of all types, and any manufacturer who is still in play will benefit. So VMT will sell bikes despite itself, and we just have to hope that there is the vision and responsiveness to ramp-up production.

As for folk who think that the Company is doing well because the SP is in the 30c range whereas not long ago it was 6c or so, I remind everyone again that prior to being 6c it was at 50c and only hit the skids because poor management decisions nearly bankrupted the business. VMT was then led out of the wilderness by an astute new Chairman, who 2 years ago suddenly quit with no advance warning, possibly because he disagreed with moves to dilute the equity raising raise cheap institutional funds (which have still not been employed), or possibly because he disagreed with proposals to award management performance options which have been perceived as far too cheap. There has been a lot of conjecture on this topic on this Site, and I do not pretend to know the truth, but to-date shareholders have never received an explanation. And to-date we still have no Chairman, the Company has drifted along, and the verdict is pretty clear, not from comments by shareholders like myself, but from the general lack of investor interest.


Am I being harsh, or simply drawing the conclusions that a wholly objective detached and dispassionate observer might make ? So I stay invested as it will be very hard to totally mess-up, but I am truly disappointed at the lack of progress in realising the true growth opportunity. Disagree by all means, but then give some real numbers and evidence and not just the aspirational VMT chatter which buys no-one a hot dinner !

Smile mate, we probably can't lose, but what an opportunity is seemingly drifting away. 2000.