CXZ 1.67% 3.0¢ connexion mobility ltd

From the $3m USD boost to ARR ($4.35m AUD), the most important...

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    From the $3m USD boost to ARR ($4.35m AUD), the most important task is to now work out what proportion would fall to the bottom line. Aaryn may choose to reinvest these profits for further growth (I think that's a smart play), but investors will look to see what the level of underlying profit is (even if the company does choose to reinvest these new profits). We know that CXZ has a gross margin of ~80%, so they will take circa 80% of the A$4.35m revenue as gross profit, that's $3.48m AUD in GP. From here, CXZ doesn't actually need to expand its sales & marketing (S&M), nor R&D (although it is likely to reinvest in R&D). So this boost to revenue is being serviced from the same cost base as before. We know that there are 3 new customer success managers who are joining. Let's assume they are on $100K AUD each. That's a $300K AUD increase to fixed costs. Other than that, there's no need to increase costs in line with this increase in revenue. This is what I love about SaaS companies - excellent scalability. So we might see around $3.48m AUD - $300K AUD - $180K AUD other costs (just to be conservative) = ~$3m AUD of the $3.48m AUD in GP (and $4.35m AUD in rev) fall to the bottom line as profit before tax (PBT). That's about ~A$2.1m net profit after tax (NPAT). On a 10x multiple of that, we have a market cap of A$21m. I think a 10x multiple would be fair for no future growth. If we bake in some prospects of future growth, on a 20x PE, we have a market cap of A$42m.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5070/5070396-a53d8da9c329db185561c723afad09d0.jpg
    Last edited by T.E.P.: 21/02/23
 
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