Sorry guys, key word 'at least' and by earnings I should have...

Sorry guys, key word 'at least' and by earnings I should have wrote NPAT. But I am taking a very conservative estimate, and in that post I was assuming lower than budgeted EBIT, and a few hiccups to be on the safe side.

There can always be hiccups with starting up production and I think better to estimate a worst case scenario of NPAT.

Just because they have their estimated EBIT in a presso, doesn't mean they'll hit it. We have no track record yet.

The point I'm making is that there is plenty of room for error, and even if targets and costs aren't as good as budgeted, and AUD POG remains the same, we can still expect an NPAT for 12 months around $20 million. Or 6 x current market cap.

Overall point: even under an assumption that they in fact under-perform for any reason, the SP is still incredibly good value. If they actually hit their targets without hiccups associated with starting up production, then they will surely multi-bag in a few years IMO, assuming level AUD POG.