Well, this is certainly being promoted by both companies as a done deal and maybe it is. I estimate that it would take between 10-20M shares to vote against the proposal for this to be defeated. Small shareholders typically don't vote and they would have to turn up in big numbers to defeat this on their own. Only 40M shares were voted at the last AGM and this is likely to rise to perhaps 60-70M for this forthcoming vote and at least 25% of that to vote No. This is a big ask, so it would take one or several of the institution holders to vote No for this Scheme to be defeated.
About the deal itself, there is no way that I can be convinced that this is in the shareholder's best interests and I do not know how the board came to that conclusion. Without this offer, I believe that the shares would have jumped to over $7 next Wednesday, so there's 0% premium offered by this deal. Another 6 months of trading would have seen this company return to near +ve EPS and shares might have traded above $10 in that scenario.
What to do depends on your particular point of view, given that there's a small chance of a No vote or a competing higher bid, the SP is not going to move much from here, for me I'll be waiting a little longer either for the vote to take place or for more details to be revealed about this awful deal.
These are the major shareholders as of September last year.
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