Hi KP, sorry if I've written it wrong. But today I sold the remainder of my holding ($150k or so). First time in 7-8 years I've had no skin in *this* MYX game. Over the last ~2 years I've gone from 6 figures down to a significant windfall today by trying to be balanced in reading the company releases and being an investor (prepared to buy and sell rather than hold).
For example; two weeks ago Revenue and EBITDA up in a short post, price flew - I sold 25% at $6.00 and bought back at $5.40 - my last trade before today. In the release was some comment about negative cashflow, IMO bad news as we were supposed to be essentially positive. Also a mention of increased expenses and no mention of any currency affect on $revenue. In hindsight the post was a final test of the market to extract maximum $ from this transaction.
Next week, we know revenue is up. But we will see just how much $expenses have increased to obtain that revenue (and how much currency is affecting those revenue $'s). IMO, and I haven't been shy in mentioning this, market sentiment to MYX is mostly influenced by Nextstellis numbers. If these surprise the market positively, like Feb 2024 (Jan 2024 10% MoM - SP ramped to $7.20) - the offer is too low. If they disappoint the market like May 2024 (Feb - Apr Low single digits, but reported confusingly - SP dropped to $5 on the way to $3.80) then the price is about right.
MYX have mentioned WH revenue is up, but if the Nexstellis numbers were *exciting* they would have been reported. IMO they'll be 4% MoM tops. Which is still "good", but if expenses are ^^ how much is that growth costing MYX?
I think we will see Mayne reporting higher Revenue, higher Expenses, a mentioned of *slightly* negative operational CF - obviously significantly in the negative (already reported) when you consider the (1), (2), (3), (4). We know the EBITDA the 1/2 and I haven't been tapping the numbers, but a reasonable Net Loss. You will definitely see a company with the C Level team and board resigned to a sale. Only chance for more $ is another bidder; but they are along way down the track with this offer. The board has been *super* open when it comes to fishing for offers! This is the best they have presented and the premiums etc are about right if you look at today and not tomorrow (which this management, like the last, has had trouble delivering on).
It would cost MYX a fair few $ if a competing offer which they supported came along (#13 of the scheme), hard to see this deal no going ahead.
GLTA
(Going to miss the MYX banter)
MYX Price at posting:
$7.20 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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