Ann: MBE On Track for Record First Half Revenue and Earnings, page-3

My prediction was FY15/16 revenue can potentially hit the upper end of over $60m. Today announcement certainly is just fabalous, that target is well within reach:

- 1st Quarter was $12.1m
- 2nd Quarter will be somewhere between $15.5-$16m, no doubt about that.
(Forecast first half revenue of greater than $27 million)

92% YOY growth rate from 1st half of last year.

New assumption, 3rd and 4th quarter will be growing at 10% per quarter:
- 3rd Qrt: $15.5 * 110% = $17.05m
- 4th Qrt: $15.5 * 110% = $18.76m

Second half will be $35.81m, plus first half of $27.6m, give us a potential full year target in exceed of $64m.

How confident i am in MBE to deliver 2nd half result? Just read this from Thorpey's comment:

“We will continue our aggressive global customer acquisition strategy and we expect to maintain our strong growth trajectory into the second half of FY2016 and beyond.”

EBITDA is greater than $3.5m, however if we take away customer acquisition cost, EBITDA will be $7.5m. If we use $7.5m as a benchmark, then full year will be somewhere between $17-$20m.

At this rate FY16/17 will be even better, EBITDA can be $25-$30m. And if we use forward number as valuation projection, a 10X on EBITDA will value MBE:

1/ At a market cap of $170-$200m for FY15/16 result, or
2/ $250-300m for FY16/17 result.