BRL now 4.04 again, looks again headed to that 4.07 handle then weaker to 4.50 by August olympics I have predicted.
NP holding firm and rising at low range 3.75 still.
So what has changed since December to make MBN shutter mining if true?
Nothing, if the LPM was working then keep the status quo i would have thought.
http://www.*****net.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-6m.gif
The TH was called in August after the NP sharply moved lower from 5.10 to 4.50 but BRL was at 3.30 then not 4.04 and COP was 4.49 Q2 30 June (likely 4.20 by August).
SO looks like they panic when the NP drops closer to the COP level (Q2 4.50 NP v 4.49Q2/4.30 Aug2015 COP)
All this recent panic set in when the NP moved down a leg on 11 Feb from 3.70 to 3.48 in 1 day but its sharply reversed V back up higher now to 3.75 now, see the graphs.
http://www.*****net.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-1y-Large.gif
If one looks at other commodities
GP up sharply 20% above lows
OilP up sharply but like NP lower
IOP up out of lows, 45 v 35, 30% above lows
CP ZP all 30% above lows
http://www.*****net.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-6m.gif
Yet NP is at its lows still. Everybody has been predicting a NP rebound but it hasnt happened yet and we need to see if this recent rally can hold the 3.70-4.10 range.
We need to see BRL drop away toward 4.50 and NP rise to 4.50. Probable this year say by H2 2016.
So why shutter now?
Looks like panic from the creditors when the NP dropped sharply yet its actually better off now so lets see if they follow through or not as Brasil Govt withholding tax refunds and Norilsk secretly buying offtake makes for a real hotbed of conspiracy theories right now.
Maybe a final shakeout of the tree as no bids received.
Why didnt the VA declare liquidation in August 2015 or in 2013 then?
WHy bother injecting US$100M in 2013 then and relist twice on multibaggers to shoot it down now when its LPM is actually working well. Why scare all the employees, state officials and investors right now?
The NP and BRL and COP & margins/gross earnings on my maths are actually better now (3.75 4.04 2.75 24% +$1.00uslb) than in Q2 2015 (5.40 3.07 4.49 16% +$0.91uslb) !!!
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