1. All in COP guidance at low end at $4.50 (but headed to $4.00)
2. Mining cop at 3.70 well below Q1 of 3.99
3. production guidance unchanged so another av 4450T pQ production
4. sales to increase
5, a massive 15,000T inventory build verifies our prior analysis, good reason why tailings dam is so enormous & so much capex spent on it, here is your missing 1 year of production, 3 times larger than expected of 3000T
6. deliveries on time in accord with shipping contracts ie secret chinese buyers keep buying
7. Brazil govt issues resolved (secretly again), no skywriting of the good news again
8. BRL devaluation keeps on going and offsets the NP drop, in fact its now 14% lower on 3.07 Q2 at 3.49
9. NP still expected to rise by Dec but it doesnt matter as BRL dropped 14% yet NP stable at 4.90-5.10 only 9% lower on Q2 of 5.40
10. cashflow still strong
11. cash at bank enough
12. planned cop reductions still in process, ready for production spike so not sacking staff
13 workforce increased to 600 from 540 in Q1, no sackings like at BHP, PAN MCR FQM
14. Wellington continues buying another 10M shares to 86M shares of 9.3%, keeps with 800,000 daily buying spree likely at 10% now up 60M shares since its 27M at DOCA
15. slowdown announcement which cracked SP 12c to 8.7c proven a manipulated false move once again
16. hidden cashflow sits in the inventory tailings dam waiting to convert to US$100M anytime they want. Cashmans great question.
Another 4 stealth massive announcements here ignored so far by market.
1.The inventory of 15,000T is massive, thats a whole years supply produced, ni conc sitting in the tailings dam and growing, dug out and shipped anytime they want.
2. Prior shutdown issues resolved inc railings & bulk handling all resolved....wheres the SP spike now of 10%?
3. Wellington adds another 10M shares another 800,000 per trading day to 9.3% soaking up more and more in stealth.
4. Chinese secret buyers fully committed with shipping contracts and continue ordering & buying large deliveries of shipments
They could shutdown the whole plant and sack all the staff bar the tailings dam dozer team and transport team and still meet guidance of 18,000T ni conc for the next 12 months with that 15000T. Where is all this additional production of 9,300T in H2 going to go? Tailings dam to build inventory to 24,000T? Ilhues port shipping 15% of MBN product means Ilhues port has ramped deliveries, MBN is a brazil govt necessity for the region.
A massive processed ready to go warchest of US$100M right there, partial slowdown proven a undercall once again. Building staff levels, building port shipping, increasing margin expansion, increasing cashflow.
No wonder Wellington & Liberty Mutual keep buying in at 800,000 daily. They dont care about the SP they buy at, even buying at 11.25c in the last 2 weeks and again now, slowly but surely building to 19.9% by December. The US NHs want 50c forget 9c they wont take it. I smell a deliberately failed takeover bid in the air at 14c-20c to shakeout the HC rebels 65M holdings. As 90% of NHs are at 50c input cost Wellington know they wont be able to shaft them lower.
Look at the volume now 60K in a morning, no sellers in sight, once again sellers got Punk'd, its dryer than the sahara desert on a hot day on top of a rock,
Suddenly 80K buy at 9.0c from nowhere. 10.0c -16c soon again, NP is the key, BRL has put in a put floor for us dropping the COP again and again.
we HC rebels
HOLD Long Hold Strong.
Manipulation A class.
