I think that is what the insto are banking on, I don't know...

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user23

3,914 Posts.

23/09/15

15:36

Post #: 16045070
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Originally posted by ccdavid ↑

I will rather focus on the Brazilian Real and what it means to MBN.
As the Nickel Price hovers around $4.50/lb and the LME Stock at all
time High, we will expect Ni price to stay this low for months. This is where
the Br Real gives MBN the biggest edge among its peers. Definitely our COP is getting
lower every time the Br Real Tumbles.
What does Low Nickel Pr do to the other Mines. They will eventually close and
will be on C&M. We are seeing this now and by the end of this year a significant
percentage of mines would have closed. In effect Ni supply could be halved. Mirabella
can survive this low Ni Pr and will become one of the few producers left. China needs a reliable
source once Ni Supply is cut because of Mines shutting down. All this event , Br Real collapse
as well as Ni Pr collapse is to MBN advantage. By mid 2016, If we are still operating our
Sp will be a multiple of what it is now. I look forward 6 months from now , we could be the
luckiest Ni Miner standing.
I won't worry about the Connotes at all. MBN has 4 more years to pay for it and by then
Ni would have recovered to $12.00 and guess what, The Br Real could still be 4:1.
DYOR

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I think that is what the insto are banking on, I don't know about nickel price going to 12US/lb, but at 6US/lb and COP including royalty at 3.5US/lb (with REAL at 4USD) that is still a net cash profit of 27.5US/lb, minus capex and repayment still 10-15M profit per quarter which is very good indeed.

MBN Price at posting: 8.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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