Reposting this here as it makes more sense in this thread.None...

Reposting this here as it makes more sense in this thread.

None of this constitutes financial advice so please DYOR.

I have run some numbers on MCB that some of you may be interested in.

This is largely based on the GCS spreadsheet in the back of their report from when CLA was purchasing Makilala that I've recreated as a calculator of NPV. I am not a mining engineer and I don't work in the Philippines so it uses most of the assumptions from the original GCS spreadsheet except I have changed the mine throughput to 2.28Mt/annum, included 2.5% pa inflation on the price of copper and gold (GCS only applied it to costs), and extended the mine life to 21 years.

Gold and copper head grades in line with the values used in the MCB Scoping Study (0.54g/t Au and 1.14% Cu). It may be a stretch for them to hit those grades over 21 years but considering the announcement from 4th July 2022 they hit 611.4m @ 1.39% Cu and 0.75g/t Au it seems a reasonable assumption.

Cu price = USD8,968/t
Gold price = USD2,150/oz
USD/AUD = 0.67

Over 21 years (all values in AUD)

Mine Revenue = $11B
Royalties = $1.2B
Mine Net Revenue = $9.8B
Mine CAPEX = $400M
Mine OPEX = $2.5B

NPV@8% = $1.4B
NPV@10% = $1.05B
NPV@12% =$820M
IRR = 42%

Assuming 2.24B SOI this gives a share price range of 36.6c to 62.5c for MCB only if finance is sorted and the mine is in production. Further upside potential for Sagay.

Once the MPSA and funding are sorted we could potentially expect 20% of this value to be realised so 7.2c to 12.5c

Prior to funding but with the MPSA signed 10% of NPV range or 3.7c to 6.3c could be possible.

Upcoming price catalysts are;

- Award of the MPSA for MCB DONE!
- Announcement of finance for MCB
- DFS and FID for MCB
- Scoping Study for Sagay
- PFS and MPSA for Sagay
- DFS and FID for Sagay
- Sale of Opuwo?

Likely some incorrect assumptions on development and operations costs and the Cu and Au prices are quite high so please DYOR and IMO only.

A big shout out to Peter and Sarge and the rest of the team at CLA that have made some truly amazing progress with the MCB project in the Philippines over the last 12 months.Reposting this here as it’s probably more appropriate in this thread.