MEA 0.00% 60.0¢ mcgrath limited

Agree. In the 6 months to Dec 2023, a period corresponding to a...

  1. 16,405 Posts.
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    Agree.

    In the 6 months to Dec 2023, a period corresponding to a cyclical low in property sale volumes, this business made EBITDA and EBIT of $7.4m and $4.2m, respectively.

    That puts it on track for full-year EBITDA of $15m and EBIT of $8.5m (there isn't much discernable seasonality in June halves vs Dec halves)... again, for a period in which transaction volumes are close to cyclical lows.

    It is conceivable, then, that mid-cycle EBITDA and EBIT would be around $17m-$18m and $10m-$11m.

    For that, the acquirer is paying an implied EV of $72.5m, equivalent to EV/EBITDA of just 4.2x and EV/EBIT of just 7.1x.

    Sure, it's not a great-quality business and sure, the new franchise-style business model has not been fully tested, but still: at those sorts of valuation multiples, the company is being sold below intrinsic value, to my thinking.

    To add insult to injury, the deal is likely to be concluded before the end of the current financial year, eliminating the scope for the capital gain tax liability to be deferred to FY2025.

    No point in protesting, however; with the acquisition being unanimously endorsed by MEA directors, it's basically a done deal.

    The only thing left to do now is to learn more about RollCo and its strategy and objectives, in order to know if we - like John McGrath - will be happy owning shares in an unlisted entity.

    .
 
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