Ann: MCM Notice of Annual General Meeting/Proxy Form, page-11

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Raphius

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21/01/22

07:47

Post #: 59027949
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Originally posted by mrposhman: ↑

I worked my EBITDA figures back from only Phase 1.

I kept 30% for my model.

HCC = 162k tonnes x $140 = $22.7m revenue, costs of $90 / tonne = EBITDA of US$8.1m, A$11.6m
Thermal = 171k tonnes x $75 = $12.8m revenue, costs of $65 / tonne = EBITDA of US$1.7m, A$2.4m so $14m all up.

I have based my model on a similar payback to what they have stated in the presentations of around about a 2 year payback.

MCM own 69%. They can only own a max of 74% of a producing asset (they must sell a min of 26% to a BEE in order to get a development licence, hence this was a key component of getting to development). They gave 5% to the IDC to extend the terms of the loan agreement.

Phase 2 production is upside to the above number.

Is the other company you are involved in TER? I'm also in there and I do see the benefits of TER being involved. I've been wondering about this the last few days, the amount they paid down in the 2nd half of 2021 seemed to be a lot lower than the cash they would have generated, so I was wondering if they had an agreement with the lenders where they have committed cash elsewhere. If it was them, I would see the buy in and development cost needing to be somewhere around $60m they would need to commit, so may make sense with the lower cash committed in those 6 months to debt repayment.

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Ok, yes your figures make sense, thanks for the clarification.

Makes it look very attractive if using phase 2 numbers.

Yes TER is the other company. The high coal prices have saved them and with Thorney buying in and potentially having a director on the board the company is looking better and better by the day, especially with the debt getting paid down. I hadn't put too much thought to the amount of debt they had paid down, but what you do say makes sense. Surely TER are looking at all options to expand, this looks like a better option then their current South African operations. I wonder if any investors in TER have reached out to the board to tell them of this opportunity? All will be revealed in the next couple of months.

MCM Price at posting: 8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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