A lot of the tonnes you are looking at are inferred and from the Chapudi project, you want to be looking at proven or probable in the second table, doesn't look like they have any for Chapudi. Doesn't mean it's not there just needs to be proven.
They have a BFS for Makhado, for 25.6 million tonnes of 13.7Mt of HCC and 11.9Mt of 5,500kcal thermal coal over LOM of 22 years. Funding decision on this should not be too far away.
Also currently waiting on export agreement update for Uitkomst, I would have though that we would have had an update on this by now, with thermal coal through the roof and it being so close to Europe. If they can get this out through the export market they should get funding for Makhado easier as well. The agreement is for the sale of at least 20kt of thermal linked to API4 so not sure what actual price we will get but futures are currently around US$350 ($520AUD). So 20kt x 3 x $400AUD (discounted as not sure what price they will get) = $24,000,000 AUD a quarter. This is very rough as I havn't had a look at the quality of the coal and what they would be getting being linked to API4. They could also get more tonnes out as well, obviously price needs to stay high but they have had a quarter of high prices with this new export agreement. Obviously dealing with African logistics throws a spanner in the works as well.
@hilly_sandman is a lot better at discounting API4 prices, what do you think?
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