#5 is the preferred play here, and is the direction Management have indicated with a FID in FY25. If we get a few good quarters with solid cash build and a gold price environment where $3500 is a floor, and spots nudging $4k. The project starts to play out *very* well.
$100M cash build for 4 or 5 quarters. That's half the outlay for the mine in the bank before FID
Don't forget that the $1B is over the 2Yrs to construct, so another 8 quarters is another $800M by end of construction. There is a strong chance Regis could fund this organically or with very moderate debt. I understand a large amount of the prior cash flow would (or should) be used to pay down the existing debt, which would free the balance sheet up.
If this is the play, then in 3 years we have McP completed and producing, with a similar debt load to where Regis sits today.
Sit on McP for the next year as they have indicated which is good and prove up the reserves at Duketon to demonstrate the longevity and worth of that operation and that its not going to be empty in 3 years which is what the market appears to be pricing in at present.
Prove up those reserves, generate some decent cash over the next year, and if the spot price is even more healthy than today, go ahead and build the thing.
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