The market is forward looking, so you need to put it in teh context of:
- they grew revenues ~44% in FY2023, and then at least 22% for FY2024
- their gross margin particularily in the US are improving and can probably move further as they digitise their offering (and 2-3% margin improvement on ~100m in revenues drops straight to the bottom line)
- the market (rightly or wrongly) looks at EBITDA for some of these firms, and that is expected to be ~7m for FY2024
=> if you theorise to say topline 15% growth next year at a 55% margin with no significant change in costs, and you have ~8m in gross profit which will drop straight down to the bottom line.
Yes a MC of ~240m for a company that will generate at best 1m NPAT is crazy, but what if that were now closer to $10m in FY25 (on a conservative basis).....a PE of 24 is not crazy for a firm growing at a reasonable pace with huge operating leverage.....and then factor in the data they are collating from the drug companies as well as the pharmacies which are all valuable assets.
But I don't disagree with you.....the harder it runs, the more likely a fall so a slow and steady appreciation in the share price would also be preferable to me rather than violent moves up/down.
Also note the potential of the business in the UK........not sure what that is worth, but impressed that Ratcliff gave the UK a chance and then when he realised it was not going to happen soon, attempted to salvage something and we have a potential asset with no drag on profits
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