I always find it interesting when someone says find a better...

I always find it interesting when someone says find a better mining stock. Who cares? Question should be find a better investment. Stock or anything else. Some of this is the Malaysia issue but that does not explain much of it. Without license expansions I believe AL said they could only go to 525T to 550T / month of Nd&Pr products. Depends on Concentrate levels and recovery rates. So license issues will have no impact till Q3. Right now they are doing 500T a month So impact is about 50 T a month 600T a year. Less than 300 T in FY 2019. They can adjust and make any combination of NdPr and separated Nd &PR they want. Even using worse case numbers that is a loss of revenue of about AU$ 2 m between now and next June. I totally agree that the news release was a trigger but no way does it explain the volume and price we have seen in last 5 days. I would offer the following they made 3M in H2 last year. Lets assume until we see better they make 10 M H1. X 2 is 20 M/ yr divide 670M SH =$0.03 / YR Current price is $1.60 that is a PE of over 50. The profits dropped 94% H1 to H2 FY 2018, that hardly deserves a PE of even 10.

This is not a prediction of FY ’19 profits just what the landscape looks like now. NdPr price is critical. It will not take much of a change in either direction to change outlook dramatically.
Prices will rise dramatically the demand will clearly be there. Investors can be assured that higher prices are coming. The question is are they 1 to 6 months away or 1 to 4 years away? If it is the second then we will see much lower SP before they go higher. If it is the first SP will go higher fairly soon. I think REO prices go lower before higher because of events in WW economy. That is JMO.

Though Q1 reports will not give profits they will give a good idea what to expect for H1. For H1 to be better than 10 M Revenue has to go up and COP both total and per KG has to go down.
ASP is included in revenue but it cannot go down staying same will be fine.

Prices have been stable since end of July. Contract delays on price and no new Next enhancements till Q3 say COP and Revenue will not see major change till Q3 unless REO prices change. So Q1 will be a good indicator of H1.