sure, for what’s it worth:
1) timeframe. My only interest is how much progress can be made over the two year expiry of options. It’s perfectly possible even with good news on a number of fronts SP can struggle for months as we work through stale holders
2) Macro theme - Telehealth. The money flowing into Telehealth solutions from Apple and Google all the way down is going to be a rising tide which may not carry all boats, but will lift a few.
3) retail excitement: they are all different but the fact retail punters have made a lot off PCK, ALC, RAP and now TTB, NHL means people will be looking for next runners so good chance of strong money flow
4) why aren’t they already chasing MEB then? The tech in my belief is by far the strongest in the mental health space. But it’s actually quite hard to get your head around. Really this will only be proven by corporate $’a flowing to support it
5) what is the technology? Measurement of circadian Rythum has links to all aspects of health, especially sleep healthy brain function and chemical balance. It’s being proven to enable early prediction of dementia amongst other things. MEB algorithms come from years of research and are ready to be capitalised as they already have CE and TGA approval. Some interesting reading here:
https://www.nigms.nih.gov/education/pages/factsheet_circadianrhythms.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4632990/
for followers of Jordan Peterson the 100’s of millions of years of evolution he refers to in his first lobster chapter of recent habits book has similar deep links to the way we work
6) what are the upcoming catalysts?
A) Simply Corporate buyers taking up illuminum , they are being approached and in talks with multiple players
B) deals to incorporate their algorithms into wearables and other Telehealth platforms. If you dig around enough as I have you can find at least evidence of early potential discussions with other players of scale in this space
7) valuation comparable and corporate need. We can all look at CALMs bn valuation and get excited. But the real magic of MEB for corporates is it’s independent predictive nature.
Regarding Telehealth sectors, mental health is unique in that it can be directly caused or contributed to via stress in corporate environments. Re corporate H&S responsibilities I think HR departments will be throwing money at this well before they use ressap to test for respiratory issues. The fact that use and value may be corporate driven as opposed to doctor / clinical in the first instance I see as a timeline acceleration as they have money to throw at these issues.
For example if Compass transition from the multiple pilots to a global ongoing deal for all staff it will be a multi million deal.
8) realistic SP scenarios. Over the full 2 years with a few corporate deals, revenue uptake, and a couple more Telehealth integrations could easily go to any of these potential scenarios
- 5c (NHL / TTB comparable)
- 10c (I used this before as mid point)
- 20 (PCK, RAP, ALC) comparables)
my only issue I worry about is not if I lose money when the options expire worthless as I have already allowed that this may happen. My biggest concern is it quickly adjusts to a 5c valuation and I lose the minerals to hold and take the 10 bags on offer only to see it continue to 20c which is 85 bags.
if it hits 10c the 10million options I have now accumulated will be worth 700k, if it hits 20c they will be worth $1.7m.
Of of course you can call me crazy thinking that this might happen. But after all it’s mental health we’re talking about
have a great day
