I think you're being a little optimistic! If we look at 4DS with...

I think you're being a little optimistic!

If we look at 4DS with a sell price of (say) $1B, that would give shareholders about 50cps after expenses. That does seem a reasonable value...

If they sit down in October at IMEC and work out that 12 months development for (say) $2M will get them a substantially higher return ... perhaps that 50cps becomes something much larger. That is the decision they will need to make, with input from industry, I would think.


The thing is that 4DS is a short term gain (from here on, at least ), one way or another it will be over by the end of next year. Everybody is going to need to think about that capital gain either this year ... or next.

WBT is a slow burn, where you are looking at income as much as capital gain. If they manage to remain intact (and with Australian tech company history it seems unlikely that they won't be swallowed), the dividend will be creating a totally different metric for value calculations to what we look at with 4DS as pure capital value.

My biggest concern with WBT is the level of shorts being played - I have seen this before (with Aconex), where the share price was supressed to the point where they were swallowed for a really cheap price by Oracle. So they may start with one premise, but end up getting forced down a different road. Aussie investors are expert in getting ripped off in these situations - we just went through it with Nearmap as well.