Thanks stumpytrunks, and thanks for your analysis. Based on these approximate decline curves and 2nd half 2024 forecasts, I was confident enough to purchase another parcel at 0.5 cents yesterday.
Risks going forward
Since the JV are planning to perforate and frac the Patchawarra in Odin-1 to increase gas production (commingled production with the current production from the Toolachee), there is a risk of gas crossflow from the deeper, higher-pressured Patchawarra into the shallower, lower-pressured Toolachee. This could "reduce/kill" the Toolachee production. I hope not. The completion procedure to mitigate this risk is unknown.
Delay getting Odin-2 online.
Unknown initial production from Odin-2 and decline, although Odin-1 is a reasonable analogue if they only perforate the Toolachee, Epsilon interval.
Upside
Patchawarra recompletion potential in Odin-1, Odin-2.
Patchawarra recompletion potential in Vali-2.
Unknowns
In the MEL Investor Presentation under key reasons to invest, they commit to a2x-3x uplift in Odin gas production with immediate revenue impact. Based on my forecast decline at Odin-1 for the 2nd half of 2024, and initial forecast production from Odin-2, I think this uplift is about right, possibly closer to 2x.
Kind regards OldGeo
MEL Price at posting:
0.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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