Yep, I know I am banging on about Odin-1's past and forecast...

Yep, I know I am banging on about Odin-1's past and forecast future production performance, but in my view, especially with Odin-2 coming online, and assuming production will commence in the Toolachee and Epsilon Formations in Odin-2, getting a handle on how both Odin-1 and Odin-2 perform is key to better-understanding the confidence level of MEL's future cashflow in the short term.

So, I took a look at the Toolachee production and decline curves for Beckler 001, Beckler 002 and Beckler 003; Bow001 is still there too. Odin-1's decline rate, since coming online in September 2023, in my view is comparable to the historical decline rates seen at Beckler002 and Beckler003 and possibly even Beckler001. That said, an Odin-1 initial production rate in the 8-10mmscf/d range would have been nice. Given the similarities in the decline rates, I am more confident now in the short-term production forecast I made for Odin-1. And as Stumpy mentioned, if the JV add a successful completion in the Patchawarra to Odin-1, we may see that add an incremental 1-2mmscf/d over and above the existing Toolachee production, as long as the Toolachee completion remains and is not compromised.

Only time will tell....and I am just trying to build some confidence in my decision to buy additional shares last week.


Kind regards OldGeo