MEL 16.7% 0.5¢ metgasco ltd

Thanks for posting your analysis @OldGeo. I am interested in...

  1. 718 Posts.
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    Thanks for posting your analysis @OldGeo. I am interested in where that revenue leaves MEL at a net position. Assuming

    1. Your revenue
    2. Opex $3/GJ
    3. Staff and corporate from MEL qtrly

    Revenue $316
    Opex $144 (@$3gj)
    $171
    Staff costs $57 (YTD $681)
    Admin. & Corp. $83 (YTD $1003)
    EBITDA $31

    Increasing the $/GJ by $1 increases the EBITDA to $67k/month. So if Vali 2/3 can't be brought back but Vali 1 and Odin 1 are online MEL is breaking even or a little better. My own assumptions, happy for feedback and improvements.

    MEL has working capital of $2.9m. So assuming

    Sept qtr same as June qtr ($524)
    Capex on Vali 2/3 ($500)

    So by end of Sept qrt MEL could/should be breaking even and have $1.9m working capital.

    Whats the plan from there @OldGeo ? Assuming Vali 2/3 can't be brought online. Would it be to drill a Vali 4 or an Odin 2? Odin is more profitable on a $/GJ however we may have obligations to AGL at Vali?

    As @Fatporka pointed out there is talk in the presentation of Odin 2 in early 2024?

    I totally agree with your comment that this is nail biting stuff. If they can get to breakeven on the back of Odin 1 by Dec qtr that would be a good start.
 
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