Hi @Cheeky_Messiah,
Appreciate the work that you've put into this and judging by the abundance of green thumbs, it's exactly what the people want to hear.
Don't like to be the one to rain on any parade but for mine, top-down projections like this with no visibility on the key drivers/assumptions are dangerous and generally wildly inaccurate.
For instance, I would think that the vast majority of revenue generated by Wealth Management is fees drawn from Funds Under Management (call it 1% ?). This figure would nicely slot into an Investor Memorandum talking about Total Addressable Market but very tenuous to use this as the starting point for the model.
Moving on..
We know that Integer's plan in the near-term is generation of revenues through producing SoA's and similar documents for customers. Given that we also have a reasonable understanding of the number of SoA's that planners produce, the amount that Integer charges for these and the number of planners each key client has, it makes MUCH more sense to draft projections based on a bottom-up approach.
I have had a crack at drafting a rough projection for Sentry here - https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...245036/page-156?post_id=22829243#.WLYu8RJ95N0
Given that NAB is roughly the same size as Sentry, it makes sense that we would double the projected numbers if they were to join Sentry as signed customers post-trial. By my back of the envelope numbers, we are ~18% of the way to M4 with NAB and Sentry fully on-boarded for 2 years leading into June 30, 2019.
Per your numbers, I can't see how generating 24m per year out of Sentry goes anywhere near passing the smell test.
Also think the 62.5% NPAT margin you're projecting is a bit fanciful. Understand we are operating on a low-cost, outsourced model but I think we will find that operating expenditure grows a little more commensurate with the top-line numbers (as a quick ref, ASX-listed MainstreamBPO operate on a 5% NPAT margin. I don't know anything further about them).
I think all shareholders are on a winner with IAM and the management team but it's important to check the blue-sky dreaming with factual evidence.
Thoughts/feedback welcome!
MG
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