The next 3 months should give us an indication of what the...

The next 3 months should give us an indication of what the Beetaloo can do, TBN have their first 2 proper US-style shale wells coming online targeting IP30 rates of 10-20TJ/d. But they still need to maintain those rates, shale wells typically decline at 80-90% in their first year. Then they'll need to analyse the declines and optimise their next generation of wells before scaling up to produce enough to fill the NGP. Still some years away.

And there is basically no chance of these wells being able to compete with Amadeus gas on the cost curve, whatever they sell will likely be at a loss while they build scale. But the risk is if they're well funded they could conceivably produce at a loss for a long time. It's a well-understood shale model. Prove the concept first then apply learnings to get your costs down below breakeven.

But I'm very confident that unless Blacktip restarts, the Amadeus will be the lowest cost gas available in the NT.