Brave effort to identify some upsides!
But clearly, this 'deal' is screamingly unbalanced, and only conceivable as a outcome of heavy arm twisting. I hate to think what's been done and said to Ian to get his agreement.
It really looks like RCP, with it'd boots in both camps, is desperate to save the embarrassment of having invested in AVL's oxidized ore body?
Given AVL's resource is second rate junk, the only smart thing for any new entity to do will be to crack on with mining TMT's quality ore bodies, no change to the EPA, no change to timelines.
It's nothing TMT couldn't have done as a stand alone, owning 100%, if RCP had chosen to get behind TNT, their best investment.
But then, maybe, perhaps, hopefully, just possibly, in decades hence.... it might be viable to move on to AVLs 2nd rate resource? Is that an upside?
An absolute gift to AVL, and a huge loss to us TMT LTSHs.
This deal needs to be massively rebalanced, or rejected. It's a definite NO from me.
If it does get through, we can only hope MM's organise a really huge market pump on the back of this 'strategic consolidation' concept, that sees the MC of the combined entity begin to reflect TMT's NPV, and gives us a reasonable exit option.
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