It's really hard to know what the AVL timeline is..
As I alluded to yesterday, I think RCF have pulled a few strings on both sides to keep most info inhouse, which is my theory on why neither company has updated the market on anything material for nearly 12 Months..
But it has also made it hard to judge if Graham is any different to what we got with Vince.
The electrolyte plant getting into action is something that had zero updates under Vince, so that is one thing going for the new management team, but otherwise, the history of AVL was
- Presented timelines which end up getting blown out to the extreme.
- Cap raises which diluted holders too much and gave away too many freebies to a select few
- Large corporate costs for a company with no income
- 'Spin' and vague statements about how close major milestones are, but then no evidence is ever forthcoming.
Under Graham so far (from what I have observed) on the above points.
- The last timeline was given by Vince mid 2022. Graham has provided no timeline at all.
- Fortunately no cap raises required so far, and with RCF/gov funding, existing holders should be better off when money IS needed in future.
- Corporate costs if anything have expanded, large new offices, several expensive new board members. These are all okay if they are essential and value is taken from them, but in a company that could be several years from any income, there is as much to be said for running as lean as possible...
This isn't the current AVL ethos, so we'll have to wait and see if it's all worth it. (TMT got a massive tick for their ability to keep costs and dilution low while still ticking boxes)
- Spin and vagueness I get a feeling Graham is guilty of this as much as Vince. His last interview I can quote " We are in the final throws of permitting, offtake and funding,,, on our way to being the next big vanadium producer"..
No one can answer how far permitting is away, but if it's 1 year, 2 years away, using the words "final throws" is an outright lie at worst, and vague spin at best..
I know Sabine you have a lot of confidence in Graham and the new AVL team, but for me I haven't seen enough evidence yet (again this may be partly due to the merger being planned and the market being kept in the dark, so I won't judge Graham there), but there are already a few red flags for me...
We also have the BFS that has had no update since mid last year, and I can't find a single occurance where Graham has even commented on it since taking over.
I would much rather have full confidence in Graham and AVL, so i'm not closed off to seeing positives as well. But I'll always acknowldge questions and concerns first
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