I took Blythe and Troy's stance yesterday and went from there,,...

I took Blythe and Troy's stance yesterday and went from there,, so today I want to incorporate Sabine's stance into their mix..

I can't yet buy into this "new" AVL, so that is still excluded.
But RCF having close on $40mil in this venture now, I can at least run with the Idea they might know what they are doing..

Lets get this out of the way too. If their intention is to buy the whole thing out and go private, we all lose, so there is no point in further analysing that outcome.



But let's say what Blythe and Troy have said is factual, AND, RCF know exactly what they are doing and making the right moves.
What can we maybe assume?

- Throwing away TMT's permitting progress would be a waste, so maybe they are keeping that.
- That means, no major changes to Plant or Operations on site. TMT's ore processing strategy is intact. No throwing out our superior economics either.

So, what advantages of a merger and what plans are there moving forward?

1. We'll assume financiers look more favourably on this resource being single owned.
2. To control the whole resource in one entity, it is simply cheaper to do it through AVL buying out TMT (market cap the biggest decider)
3. AVL has always had more attention, more recognition, and have created links to government pockets.
4. They are keeping TMT's essential personal, Ian the most important, and giving him the most important task, managing the resource and what will be done with it.
5. AVL followed TMT's lead and drilled out their Southern block. If we can assume RCF are running almost entirely with TMT's development plant, any additonal early 'high quality' ore with titantium credits that AVL can add will extend the early profitable years, helping opex, helping payback, helping the 'producer' get off the ground. We haven't seen results of what AVL had there, but maybe Ian and RCF have and know it's a genuinally worth addition.
6. Maybe they plan to exit at the peak of this and don't really care what gets done with the crap ore after that, but that's a big assumption.
So...
7. This is where handling the bulk of AVL's ore needs a plan.. And I genuinally have little answer here.. Does the onsite plant get modified say, 6 or 7 years down the track? Any additional permitting can be handled while TMT's plant is going strong, and then it gets expanded, modified and we have 50 plus years of blended ore that they have had all of AVL's previous work, plus another few years from now to optimize while TMT's stock standard plant has been producing and building capital.

I dunno..

Just like many here, it is hard to make sense of throwing out everything that was going for TMT, and then adding all of the additional complexities of what AVL have tried (and failed) to make economical for over a decade.

So I am trying to find a proposal that RCF saw where, advantages of having it all under one roof needed to be taken, but TMT is still absolutely 100% the main game in town.

That at least can make some sense to me, from RCF's perspective..

Hell, it's obvious that to own the whole resource, AVL had to buy out TMT. It's simple dollars and cents..

But how differently might we able to look at this whole thing and how RCF plan to move forward, if we changed that sinple point and and have TMT buying out AVL.

We'd be looking at it like, TMT see an opportunity to extract the best parts of AVL, let's say including the name, but TMT IS still the main game here..

Maybe that's exactly how it is, just it's all obscured simply by the fact it was cheaper to have one entity acquire the other and not vise versa?