Ann: Merger Presentation, page-640

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Handy777

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25/10/23

20:46

Post #: 70538984
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Originally posted by sabine: ↑

Handy yes I thought about it and, as said, think it would be a huge ‘whoops’ in regards my hopes if it happened.

However I guess the only way the merger would be revised downwards for the TMT side would be if AVL prices suddenly went up and it turns out it doesn’t need TMT as much as most here assume.
Is that a possibility?
I don’t know.

But I think it’s unlikely that a new proposal would revise the TMT valuation lower

Firstly 32.4c looks like a rational midline on TMT market cap since the company’s inception;
View attachment 5691460

Secondly; Returning to dbd’s theory on RCF : “they'll do everything to ensure they end up with a healthy profit from the whole deal.”
I’ll continue to take solace in the fact I agree, and that therefore RCF wanted to best protect its 46m shares here in approving the price ratio.
And that it was with a view to setting the stage for a healthy profit that the AVL price was sold down to levels at which RCF was happy to take a SOA at 12 for 1

Cheers

Expand

I agree, 32.4 looks like a rational midline.

But as I’ve posted before, the average premium in the materials sector is about 60%.

That would be about 52c or about 19 shares.

But then even that assumes that the market has priced us correctly for the last few years which I don’t think is the case.

We could easily be at 20% of our NPV for a project this de-risked.

That would be about $1.00.

Then add a premium to that.

TMT Price at posting: 23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Merger Presentation, page-640

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