@wassa - as you have said all along, WGX physical assets are aged, so are it's mines, yet... this deal comes at a time when both companies are heavily (or have) invested in their assets. I trust WB...
The presentation which touches on the synergies is nice enough (and I do value them, as WGX has shown the economies of scale do matter, plus, the ability to move staff around the operations, albeit, Geographically, the synergies are not great), but in a very simplistic view, a 200k p.a producer is being priced at around $1b AUD.
WGX, sort of like SLR, is attempting to acquire better assets than they have, with the resultant pain that comes with it, but... also potential benefits with an increased production profile, which... is really about major funds buying into WGX (enlarged entity). I think WGX will be moved to the ASX200 over time, which will result in a further rerate, albeit this will take time as the dual listing won't count initially (as I understand it from the MoM discussions).
I tip my hat to the MoM team, their 'word on the decline' was accurate.
I try to be honest with my posts, are really... I am a small fish in the sea, but I did buy a few back today (sold some last week).
I think after a little reflection, WGX (WB in particular) was so brutal with the FY24 guidance to show integrity to the Karora team just before the deal was announced... I respect that, even if I didn't like the news. Both Karora and WGX has seen good gains in their share prices, so I am fairly neutral on the actual assets both companies bring to the table (though I need to spend a lot more time look at Beta Hunt etc before I can make a fully informed decision).
Both companies made money this quarter even with the weather issues (2+ weeks for both companies of lost production basically).
Again, I think this merged entity is more like a 500k p.a producer by 2026-27, which will fill a big void in the market and see a commiserate rerate.
The trading so far seems fairly muted. I think it will take time for the market to come around to the longer term benefits. I mean... Karoras main U/G mine does look the goods...
I still think WGX will still have to do something about the Bluebird plant, but... as I have discussed previously, they have perhaps 18-24 months of stockpiles to draw on, which gives them a bit of time to do a deal with a nearby small cap or simply re-open old open pits. I struggle to see how a cutback or two would not be profitable at $3500 AUD.
2 1/2 months and the ASX will have a true 400k p.a producer to rival RRL (though I rate RRLs assets as even worse than WGX except for Tropicanna).
(20min delay)