Spot on
@nippy this is an opportunistic shake down which i suspect is being coordinated by a number of hedge funds, who have previously deployed such tactics against Mesoblast. Two days ago there was a large volume day of the NASDAQ and the short position noticeably increased by approx 600k ADR’s while the stock was trying to recover. When you see shorts responsible for such a high percentage of daily volume it is highly likely to be manipulation to put a cap on the price as they have already build up a sizeable position . As a result of recent bear trades stock lending rates moved up significantly and there were only 20k ADRs shown as being available to lend by Interactive Brokers for new short positions in MESO as of last night. The macro picture and investor confidence generally, makes shorting the recent big market gainers, such as Mesoblast , where there is a higher percentage of “hot money” , a relatively easy short term bet. Some MESO investors will be limiting exposure by buying options whilst others will have leveraged purchases using products such as CFDs. When the markets is so unstable , leveraged risk is often pruned owing to general market exposure losses . If you look at any of the famous growth companies you will see similar pull backs in their charting history making this an excellent entry point for those who have yet to take a position. For the rest of us, it is just the feeling of five steps forward , two back, which is annoying.
So where are the Ryoncil revenues ? Days or worst case weeks away. The conference call clearly guided to March sales launch . The “delays” are not really delays, as it is perfectly normal to allow a small time period post approval to obtain FDA permissions for final label, pricing and post marketing requirements which need to be in place before signal sign off. This is a formality in my view.
Over the next few months i believe we will be noting from public sources, numerous insurance companies agreeing coverage for Ryoncil and sales start to climb. In certain cases , Mesoblast will first obtain coverage from an insurer based on a patient in their care prompting a review of the treatment decision. Medicaid coverage often takes up to six months to come through, but there will be plenty of sales before then..I will be particularly interested in how young adult demand is dealt with on an “off label “basis , which could dramatically effect the share price. I understand some US hospitals will pony up using profits from private payers but normally expect to get reimbursed by Medicaid at a later date . Lets remember that a severe grade GVHD patient is normally stuck in their ICU incurring significant charges .
Many people on these threads appear to have completely ignored the opportunity in adolescent treatment refractory Crohns, maybe because SIlviu needs to confirm the length of primary endpoints with the FDA , such as four, eight or twelve week endoscopic remission. A simple single label investigator led trial might allow another multi billion market for Ryoncil as early as next year if we can repeat the efficacy shown in the Cleveland Clinic Phase1/2a clinical trial results. Lastly, the elephants in the room are the end stage heart submission meeting with the FDA in April and the acceleration in CLBP recruitment. As investors start to feel comfortable that Ryoncil revenues are starting to ramp we should move within 2-6 months to new highs.
OP
Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed in the above post when making an investment decision.
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