@col69Whether the price moves initially or not………..let me ask a...

@col69

Whether the price moves initially or not………..let me ask a simple common sense question to all you readers?

Temcell is the leading therapy for treating adult acute steroid refractory GVHD in Japan for some five years. Assuming Ryoncil finally gets the green light in the USA, who imagines that physicians will not want to prescribe Ryoncil as at least a second or third line therapy for adults with the same condition?. Mesoblast know it is against the law to market a therapy for off label use before approval , so I am sure they will not discuss this opportunity which is somewhat ironic as it is normally adult treatments which are not allowed to be marketed to paediatric patients on toxicity grounds …not the other way round.

Furthermore , two years ago, before the CRL, people started to model sales of Ryoncil for the US paediatric market. Most were guided to a $300,000 per treatment price point…now the Company is hinting that pricing discussions are indicating a much higher potential level of up to $500k per treatment, comparable with Kymriah.

https://www.healio.com/news/hematology-oncology/20190529/car-tcell-therapy-total-cost-can-exceed-15-million-per-treatment

SO what does this all mean?. I think sales of Ryoncil will be considerably larger than most are expecting before an adult confirmatory trial is concluded …if you want allocate a risk of 20% that the resubmission fails, fair enough…but sales of over $400m look easily achievable if 500 adult patients are added to the mix. With a sustainable cost base of less than $100m, Mesoblast’s should be on “full thrusters” quite soon..enough…Silviu needs to get out and educate people about the opportunity !!! When one considers that sr aGVHD is the smallest market being addressed, I believe the MSB share price is totally undervalued ,,,,,,, OP


Please do not rely on the accuracy of any of the facts and opinions given in the above post Sean making an investment decision.