Finally listened to the Q1 announcement webcast over the weekend...

Finally listened to the Q1 announcement webcast over the weekend
- interesting to note that MSB expects both phase 3 readouts within a couple of weeks.
- webcast also seems to suggest that COVID ARDS readouts will trigger a significant proportion of the $505 million pre-commercialisation payments. Along those lines, I'd be expecting a milestone payment to be triggered once we get the 60% interim irrespective as to whether it is overwhelming efficacy or not (just needs to pass futility)

If we assumed COVID ARDS was $200 million of the 505 million, then it might be
- 60% interim (passes futility) - $20 million
- trial completion/overwhelming effiacy $50 million
- EUA - $50 million
- final BLA approval - $ 50 million
- additional markets ie EU - $30 million

All cause ARDS would be similar but with additional milestones along the lines of commencement of phase 3, earlier interims etc

Anyone have a sneaky suspicion that MSB might try to time one of the announcements with tomorrows AGM?