Ann: Mesoblast Phase 3 Chronic Low Back Pain Results, page-179

Yes, clearly not a failure but not a knockout due to missed primary endpoint. The practical outcome is almost the same in that there will still need to be a P3 study. The key point is that the 5 years of study data is not trashed and the treatment works for subsets of the population which would be the focus of the confirmatory study.

If this was the first study release of the recent 3 x P3 studies, the SP would have gone down by 20-30%, IMO. As nearly every conceivable piece of bad news has been factored into the current SP, it went up.

Now you have a situation where SI is trying to do cash deals on CHF (and now possibly CLBP, though his confidence is high with these results that he even mentioned going alone for the next study) which will mean no CR but in the meantime a few income/cash driving catalysts to come:

1. aGVHD meeting
2. C19 ARDS results and Novartis sign off on deal and outside chance of secondary outcomes triggering a EUA from FDA
3. CHF deal
4. CLBP US deal
5. CLBP EU/South America Grutenthal payment (original or revised)

There are way too many shorts open with this asymmetric situation. Why would anyone hold short positions for another year in the hope of a CR? There's plenty better stocks to short out there.

I am expecting today will be the next stage of the short squeeze with reality setting in for the greedy ones who just wanted that last drop.