Ann: Mesoblast Phase 3 CLBP Trial Completes Enrollment, page-155

I took significant profits at $4.85 recently and sold the rest of my holdings at $4.30 today.

My rationale is to protect my capital IN CASE the CLBP readout is the first major readout next week. Whilst we don’t know what order the CLBP, CHF and 60% COVID will read out, on balance from publicly available information it’s likely to be one of the first two IMO.

ARDS is the main game IMO and I can clearly see the rationale around the method of action of the stem cells to counter Cytokine storms in an acute setting. What I can’t get my head around is how the stem cells will work effectively in a ‘one shot’ delivery in a chronic condition such as lower back pain. I hope I’m proven wrong.

The CHF seems a bit more likely to be successful but not as likely as COVID ARDS. So I’m prepared to buy back in on a first successful result next week (of any 3 indications) at substantially higher prices, because that will not be the end of an increasing share price over the medium to longer term.

What I’m not prepared to do is lose half of my capital if the SP tanks on a failed CLBP trial read out first next week. This scenario would however, enable an extremely good opportunity to buy back in for a circa 50% discount to be ready for a higher chance of success for subsequent CHF and COVID ARDS readouts.

I’m going to sleep a lot better now over the weekend. Anyone else do anything similar or have similar (or contrary) thoughts about the CLBP trial?

Cheers
Sarge