Ann: Mesoblast Phase 3 CLBP Trial Completes Enrollment, page-204

So really, I should explain a bit better.

The coin flip, chance of getting 10 out of 12 heads is 1.93%

What does that represent? So that series of coin flips is supposed to represent the trial arm? So we've applied a treatment to this coin, it has flipped heads 10/12 times.

That's great! treatment works right?!

Let's flip an untreated coin. To make sure it's not just the coin. Well wait, they didn't really do that, did they?

They looked at a bunch of other coins flipped around the same time in the same city. Looks like those coins had much worse results.

But actually those coins had much worse results than an even larger cohort of coins was discovered to have when more data came in.

Were we comparing our results to a bad batch of coins? or was it a fair control?

Now the chance of our coins flipping heads 10/12was 1.93%, what about 9/12? What about 8/12? Just one different result make a huge difference in the likelihood of the results being due to chance rather than treatment.

So if just one of our coins flipped heads because it was a major outlier on underlying physical fitness or .... coin weighting.... then it completely changes how the results should be interpreted. It becomes a major confounding variable. If we had 1000 coins, that single outlier would make much less of a difference.

Considering these coins we flipped also were not randomly grabbed from a bag but were in fact selected based on inclusion and exclusion criteria that aren't clear, it adds another level of complexity in interpreting the results.

Again, not an expert, happy to be corrected, it's.... it's just not as simple as people here are portraying it.

Again, not downramping, just trying to shine a light on a couple things with my limited knowledge.