MSB

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95.0¢ mesoblast limited

Ann: Mesoblast Update on COVID-19 ARDS Trial, page-342

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stocksa

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18/12/20

11:50

Post #: 49678595
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Originally posted by bedger ↑

I am utterly dumbfounded by this result like most holders.

I still believe the treatments have underlying efficacy. There is plenty of evidence to suggest so, its just not clear-cut. We need more information on the ARDS results.

I utterly agree with comments above. A two day trading halt to release an uncomplicated batch of statistics mere minutes before trading open was effing unprofessional. This is an ASX200 company, they have an obligation to have this stuff out before the future opens and an obligation to their investors to not have to make rushed trading decisions.

I am staying in at these levels on the Novartis deal and GvHD and CHF promise and back results (the trial I was least optimistic about of the four). Its easier for me. I am a recipient of two stem cell treatments that have rescued me from mild disability. I know there is efficacy there. Alas my success there sways my investment choices.

The company was clearly unlucky in the FDA GvHD overturn, but one cannot help but wonder how MSB/FDA became so diverged in their attittudes given the high level of discourse that takes place on applications and trials. I am not grasping at straws, I honestly believe hope remains there, but I am realistics about the likelihood.

On CHF they were unfortunate on choice of primary endpoint. If they had been less conservative they'd have smashed the trials given previous poor efficacy from other treatments in CHF.

COVID-19 ARDS, well, we need more information. Given the inertia with the trials and the above, I cannot help wonder if trial design is again an issue. SI's comments about continued high mortality in severe cases under SOC now taint the situation. Perhaps Novartis can get this treatment properly trialled and progressed with them in non-COVID ARDS - a huge lifeline and endorsement that they are invested in a partnership.

MSB is back to a long hard hard investment slog. Gone are the quick large returns potential (positive back results are going to get it back above $4 at best). I remain convinced by the potential efficacy of the treatments, but regulatory progress is looking finely balanced for GvHD and CHF and COIVD-19 realted ARDS, well there is just not enough information to go on right now. The Novartis deal and some potential luck with the FDA in GvHD and CHF make it a decent long term investment for me (he said trying hard to think objectively) at these prices - hence I won't sell here.

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SI will have to answer questions about why did it take 2 days for a TH and further questioning about MSB’s communications to the market overall Terrible communications
Other than that I have dusted myself off and hanging in
Crikey is all I can say

MSB Price at posting: $2.39 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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