Ann: Mesoblast Update on COVID-19 ARDS Trial, page-382

To be fair, in Jan 2020, SP was ~$3. This was pending GvHD, CLBP and, CHF. Covid was not on the horizon at that time. GvHD had the highest probability of success and corresponding discount on analyst expectations. This one is somewhat on the backburner now. That leaves CHF and CLBP. The way I see it, CHF some see as a miss and others a goal, but it will probably go to VAR (FDA) and run the risk of being ruled offside. The only additional NEW upside potential we had since Jan was covid, and there is a risk that this will haemorrhage on the NASDAQ. Remember, when MSB first announced the Covid results/trial, the biggest response was on the NASDAQ. The initial response on the ASX was a bit muted and I am genuinely concerned that the reverse will happen tonight. So really, the only bullet we have left is the CLBP. In the short term, it's almost binary. If CLBP does not get through, I think we will see lows worse than post LVAD result. Because essentially, we will be in a worse position with trials and cashflow.