@kervio, just wanted to also express my interest in your...

@kervio, just wanted to also express my interest in your thoughts on this if you get time to model it. Hopefully with the (ambitious?) primary endpoint of 43% reduction in mortality now being disclosed, we might be able to work backwards to estimate what minimum beneficial effect Rem-L must have been showing on mortality at 45% interim. I appreciate this may require assumptions on priors, confidence levels used to set futility boundaries.

Based on SI's comments in the webcast about there being a potential sweet spot for Rem-L in treating ARDS (just as there appeared to be for Revascor in CHF), I'm cautiously optimistic that Novartis will still be interested in sponsoring the investigation into COVID and non-COVID ARDS when the trial data is unblinded. If so, this would reduce the cash burn risk.

The end-game incentive for a company like Novartis remains high. Even with vaccines on the horizon, the COVID, influenza and bacterial market is still huge. Further, if Rem-L's therapeutic benefit is best realised by applying it during a 'sweet spot' earlier in the progression of this disease, perhaps prior to ventilation, this could actually make the treatable market even bigger than, say, if its label was limited to only those on ventilators in a moribund condition.

The advantage of the trial being stopped now is that MSB can start analysis of data sooner (conceivably commencing only ~30 days from now). This could lead to a better designed / more targeted confirmatory trial with better recruitment conditions and controls, perhaps backed by Novartis and/or perhaps concurrently proceeding with EUA if in fact there is a demonstrable mortality benefit shown (albeit not at 43% reduction).

Whilst it has been a disappointing week in terms of SP, we've also gained some insights this week about what roles MSB could play in both CHF &ARDS. Perhaps it's really an opportunity for analytical, patient investors. Early deductions about mortality benefit from yesterday's disclosures can contribute to this investment thesis.