"if the CHF trial used a mortality primary endpoint.. it would...

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21/12/20

16:34

Post #: 49733720
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Originally posted by stockrock: ↑

I feel the share price will do whatever it feels like doing... I'm not one to determine if it is either over or under priced .. it is what it is.

What I can take a view on is what may come down the road for Mesoblast... and the obvious one being the CLBP phase 3 read-out.. which I was hoping would be out today, but the MSB team may need some time to recover and gather their thoughts before having another read-out.

I feel management have copped it unfairly both on the CHF and COVID trial.. if the CHF trial used a mortality primary endpoint.. it would probably need several thousand patients.. it took around 5 years to recruit around 550 patients and has cost hundreds of millions of US dollars to run this trial over 6 years. They've failed this phase 3 trial, but they now have a very clear target for their next phase 3 trial.. what they need now is a partner who is well funded to take the plunge... but it will be many more years until that trial reads out, so the clock resets and with a lot more data behind the next trial (assuming it gets run).. investors and potential partners will be able to make a much more informed decision on the likelihood of success.

And for the COVID trial, back when the trial was set up the view was that full recruitment could take a few months .. and if that did eventuate, we may very well have had a positive read-out. Unfortunately nobody knew that it would take so long to recruit patients, which was largely due to the influx of experimental treatments that prolonged patient treatment prior to intubation. And once put onto ventilators, they were a lot more refractory to any treatments.. including ours.

I feel the secondary endpoints will again provide valuable data for Novartis to design with all cause ARDS trial.. but given the mayhem in the US and globally... I am not sure when that trial will begin ... start it during a raging pandemic and it becomes a very slow to recruit and expensive trial .. hospital resources are already stretched and most may not have capacity to take part in a non-COVID trial.

I'm trying not to think too far ahead.. there are possibilities that great things could still come out of the CHF and COVID trials.. but I'm going to let them be surprises, as opposed to expecting them to happen.

Not much more to add until the CLBP trial results are read-out ... we'll get the Type A meeting minutes outcome shortly.. 2021 couldn't come soon enough!

Goodluck all.. stay safe.

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"if the CHF trial used a mortality primary endpoint.. it would probably need several thousand patients."

How much can we read into the stated 60% mortality improvement if this is the case?

MSB Price at posting: $2.30 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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