Alright, so still not selling, will wait for CLBP and see. Averaged at $2.26, so still a bit in the green overall, but nervous, clearly...!
I was always worried about all-cause mortality in ARDS, and have harped on the other figures, measures, including hospital stay, time on ventilator, etc., as perhaps more likely to show benefit in a changing population, and with SOC increasing and mortality declining.
The real bummer here (besides the pain to our pocket books) is that if there IS a positive effect for COVID ARDS at all (which appears possible/likely in respect of some patients/parameters), it's going to be delayed for some time. Once the data is unblinded, and with all the big announcements behind them at that point (and the SP bleeding perhaps having stopped by then...), hopefully there is SOMETHING that can be done for those sick and dying, and MSB has sufficient manpower to drill down into the data quickly and identify what they can about the treatment. Clearly, it will help inform the all-cause ARDS trials (though advances in treatment due to COVID would still need to be considered, as they could be extended to other forms of ARDS, too, and have the same impact). Trial design is going to be VITAL. Please, MSB, let's learn from past missteps...
Interesting that with AGVHD, the WORSE the patients are, the better they seem to react to the treatment. That was the premise at the start of this trial, too. But with CHF, and now with COVID ARDS, the EARLIER we catch them, it seems, the better.
Just shows we are still learning SO MUCH, and that there is so much we aren't sure of at all. Welcome to the cutting edge...
Just thinking about it, I am (perhaps vainly) hoping that initial review and work on data for CLBP indicated to MSB it was a lay-down misere, so MSB shifted immediate focus to CHF, which is stellar (60% decrease in mortality)...but not stellar (no real impact on hospitalisations). It would be nice to see positive CLBP readouts released next week and for MSB to have hit a real home run there. Would perhaps put us back in the high $3.00 range and give us all something to be happy about before the end of this sh*thouse year...
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