Multiple reasons -- but in summary -- 1) Incompetent management 2) Dishonest management 3) No Cash
The ROAD: CKA spent two years building the road from the mine to Batu Tuhup. They knew the road has to be built for all-weather and built for trucks hauling 30-40 tonnes load. But once built -- the road wasnt built to custom specification and there are many places where the trucks just wont push through with that load, so only 10-15 tonnes of load is feasible = higher transport cost, need more trucks, delayed production ramp-up and higher breakeven costs. POOR POOR ENGINEERING & PLANNING. Now they are saying they are rectifying this issue which will take upto end of 2024. Given their pinpoint accurate timelines -- consider this a 2026 event.
The Barges: CKA management has been leading investors for almost 2 years now that the barges are "imminent" and yet they have not shown up yet. Like SJ said there are 100s of barges moving up and down the same river, but CKA cant even find 2 barges. Clearly they are misleading investors. There are serious issues regarding barges procurement. Or maybe the miners in the region dont want CKA to succeed. Why? The river can carry a limited load of coal down the river. Why have another player in the mix taking away that river load capacity. CKA has not once bothered to elaborate the issue here.
The Seasons: CKA's earlier guidance was that they can barge upto 300 days for coal movement, that went down to 250 days. I reckon its less than 100 days of the year where they can barge at their location -- which is quiet upstream. There is not a single operator at the distance from the river mouth. There are some in proximity downstream. But CKA's Batu Tuhup is the furthest away from river mouth, so the least navigable. Now rain / high water season runs from November to April. -- or 180 days of the year. Even in these 180 days, we have seen from playdough's images that river at Batu Tuhup is not navigable for 40-50% of the time -- so make it 100 days. If the river is not navigable at Batu Tuhup during rain season, forget about it completely during dry season for even 1 day. We are in March -- so 50 days of loading ahead at best, then the window opens again only in November. CKA is running out of time.
The loading Conveyor: At the last update on this on 8 Jan 2024, the work was 60% complete and was targeted for full completion by 31 Jan 2024. No updates since - because you can see from the images -- there is no work being done here. Talk about missing deadlines by a whisker or miles.
The Cash: CKA had $80,000 cash in the bank end-December. This was after the 50% payment received from the coal sales to ICT. Since then we can see from the images, coal stockpiles at Batu Tuhup are largely the same. How can they rise, with no cash in the bank. How can you sell more coal, if you dont mine coal. There is no mining happening for WEEKS (but CKA wont admit)
The Coal Sale: So CKA talks about selling 8,000 tonnes of coal to a local smelter for which pick-up was supposed to be last week. Is it new mined coal, or the same coal that was sold to ICT in December? Does that mean the cash from the sale of coal comes to CKA or ICT (which will then pay 50% of that to CKA which was to be paid at pick-up). All hazy and unclear. Classic CKA management way to misleading investors.
Coal Reserves: CKA undertook a 40-50 hole drill program in 2023 to lift coal resources / reserves at the BBM mine. We are in March, and there has been no reserves / resource report being filed for 2023. So did they actually drill the holes?? or if they did -- it led to decrease in reserves instead of increasing? This is slipped under the rug. Dont talk about it and dont expect questions from investors. Classic CKA.
This company and its management are like cowboys who have no idea what they are doing. There is no cash, no mining, no infrastructure, and no barges. And there is no one here who is sensible enough to discuss these issues. Instead if you ask questions, they will label you as a Short agent, or someone who hasnt done their due diligence. Just try to defame you, but wont discuss these issues and management pitfalls.
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