Pull up s stool as I have a story to tell...Key take-away 1:...

Pull up s stool as I have a story to tell...

Key take-away 1: MetaPanel is a step-change in technology - no major innovation in this category since 1990s. (slide 19)

Key take-away 2: ~ 1 million stool multiplex PCR tests ordered in Australia to diagnose GI pathogens every year (slide 13)

Key take-away 3: price differential between PCR test and MetaPanel and targeted market share by MetaPanel is ?????????? (slide past those questions)

As it turns out it is a story without a punchline...

Without even the skimpiest of financial modelling of this product the opening promotion is a bit of a fizzle for investors, well, for me at least. Yes, yes, Sonic is in with exclusive assessment rights but other than that all we have is p!ss and wind. I did a quick google and saw that a polymerase chain reaction (PCR - these days the standard type of test to look for microbes) can cost the punter $150 to $200 a pop. We know the path labs and medicos would get the bulk of that money but say MetaPanel gets used half the time in those crap tests, so say 500,000 tests a year, and Microba nets $10 a test. So maybe we can expect Microba to earn $5m a year from this product just in Australia and when it is released in other western markets Microba is modelling revenue of $100m pa just from MetaPanel.

Is my guess far too optimistic? way too timid? We just don't know because the presentation and the video steer well clear of any numbers.

Also, how are they going to market this product to the GPs (as it does not look like it is intended to be used in hospitals given users of the test have to deliver their sample directly to Sonic). Is MetaPanel such a step-change that it will sell itself or has Microba got a sales force established to spread the word?

Really hoping they have a winner with this product as its sales trend to date - ex-what the pommy outfit does - is looking fairly average.