re: Ann: Metcash disputes amended FTC Determi... That's almost...

re: Ann: Metcash disputes amended FTC Determi... That's almost half of the companies net profit! Coupled with the potential for negative eps growth due to deflation and the constant negative vibes from the recent announcements does anyone think metcash may be overpriced?

Maybe. I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks. If the negative EPS growth becomes a reality then I would say so. I am surprised to see it back up over $4. Normally you would say it's money moving into a defensive stock due to the macroeconomic worries but MTS is not looking terribly defensive right now.

I'm not sure the impairment charges will be as big a deal as you are saying, the underlying earnings will be much more important IMO.

The nightmare scenario will be a larger than expected writedown PLUS a negative EPS growth. But I think if underlying EPS meets guidance then the impairment might not be such a big issue since it is fully expected and shouldn't provide any major surprises.

Dividend growth has been good the last few years but it's hard to see that continuing. Same as PCP is probably the best we can expect, a cut is possible.

So if MTS can deliver:

- Low single digit EPS growth
- Dividend same as PCP
- Impairment meeting analyst expectations

I will consider that a good result.

A blow from left field might be a Mitre 10 writedown. A lot of people were expecting that in the halt a few weeks ago, yet it turned out to be the Qld business.

Interesting times ahead.