I think CMM know their stuff as well as anyone in the industry and to be honest, if anyone could justify a 0% discount rate, its them anyway
I just had a quick listen to the briefing again as I have been slowly accumulating CMM again, mainly because the price has come back so far, plus... I keep 'refining' my portfolio to hold large positions in the best in class. For those still interested, use this link (
CMM 19th April) to access the ASX doc, then fill in your details and.... enjoy the show.
I had to listen to it twice when they stated that the majority of the inferred 650k ounces, is just 10-20m below the current pit design.... (that means.... little extra stripping to access it!) with a similar conversion rate for the indicated into reserves, I get another 300-400k added into the mine plan when they do the next MRE (which is in June). That also excludes any other additions they have from the other pits being extended, which they will. I think we will see a reserve close to 2m ounces, which....
leads me to my next bit of speculation... CMM will further upside the plant to 6mtpa (just like they did with Karlawinda).
This will see them be able to upscale the production profile to 175k p.a, or... a combined production of 300k p.a.
In the question time, they discuss that if... an open pittable discovery is made within 5km of the plant, then scale and mining schedule would be fluid to best fit the new situation... later in the discussion, they do admit that the plant will be able to process a lot higher than 5mtpa, oxide alone at 5.5mpta, but... the main limitation is just being able to mine enough ore (they don't want to go too big).
This also excludes any future U/G production, which I admit, won't be initially looked at, as the open pit is profitable enough on its own, but.. once they start blending U/G ore, I am pretty confident we will see the Mt Gibson plant hit 200k p.a.
Even just how upfront they are with the market about funding, expectations for cashflow generation etc.
At a guess, they will indeed need the $200m in funding (unless POG in AUD skyrockets), as $340m is not a small amount of capital. But... with $70m net cash currently and they will likely build $20m+ per quarter going forward (though they are already buying/spending on early works and kit where possible), so... another 9 quarters at $20m gives them $180m + $70m, $250m, meaning they may only need perhaps $150m in actual debt).
So interesting to hear about the permitting hurdles... slow going is an understatement, and that is on a past mining centre.
Also interesting about the halo of gold endowment. Final stockpile that may... be processed. If they mine 50mt, at 0.15g/t (just a guess), perhaps 2-3 more years 25k ounces p.a.
So interesting about the U/G potential.
Back in the early 2000's, some of the deeper parts of the open pits were already looked/studied as to being U/G mines versus just open pit.
Basically, if the lodes continue at depth, at the same grades, U/G potential is big....
Though to be clear, they stated that for now, open pits are the main focus for drilling, then open pit satellite pits, then.... finally U/G.
But... I just think that shows how long this project will be mined into the future.
Finally, the team still sound like they are keen for 1 more mine/project, though... they did state it could already be in production. I wonder if that is different from in the past?
Anyway, happy to have CMM as a part of portfolio. Would be soo good to see them have more drilling success at Karlawinda, that would really assist them with covering even more of the funding for Mt Gibson.
(20min delay)
