SE1 0.00% 0.2¢ sensera limited

Ann: Micro-Location Co-operation and Licensing Deal with DecaWave, page-15

  1. R-7
    651 Posts.
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    @Up2Date. I agree that the fundamentals are looking very good.

    While I think a CR is very likely, it's not guaranteed. Also, if Sensera hits the upper end of their forecast revenue for FY2018 (US$7.25M), they may have time to lift the SP before any further CR.

    And a bit more on the financials...

    FY18 revenue may be at upper end of guidance (US$6.25-7.25)

    The Q3 Update reaffirmed guidance of US$6.25-7.25M and flagged a 'material' Q4 boost to revenue from Nanotron sales and SE1's deal with Abiomed, which came into effect earlier this year. To meet guidance of US$6.25M will require min. Q4 cash receipts of US$2.9M, or an increase of 128% on Q3 18. The big unknown is new revenue from marquee client Abiomed.

    Abiomed is on fire, with Impella (heart pump) sales and revenues growing around 10% Qtr on Qtr in the US and about 20% Qtr on Qtr internationally. The company's revenue is up 30% in the last financial year (ended 31 Mar 2018, see their AR and investor reports). They have an aggressive program of expansion for hospitals in the US, Germany, Japan (and elsewhere) which should make a significant positive impact on SE1's bottom line for Q4 2018 and going forward. Abiomed is a marquee client for a min. three-year contract (2018-2021).

    R&D rebate

    Sensera expect to claim US$1.6M as R&D rebate for Fy18 (incl. an est. R&D spend of US$550k for Q4, as per Ann. 19 April 2018), boosting their Q1/2 FY19 cash position.

    Equipment sale, lease-back, and new credit facility

    As per Ann. 25 June 2018, Sensera sold equipment (for US$1.1M cash) they will lease back for operational purposes. Under the deal with Farnam Street Financial, they will also have access to 'lease-line' credit facility with Farnam for a further US$1.2M. This arrangement frees up access to US$2.3M in capital.

    Directors have been buying

    Since Ralph Schmitt took over as CEO on 6 Nov 2017, Directors (Lauro, Morgan, Schmitt and Tooth) have bought 1,465,992 shares on-market @ average of $.25 for a total of $355k. That's almost 1% of all shares (164M) moving into directors hands in the last half-year.

    The SP is now at a 36% discount on recent director buying and (as @Up2Date said) 4 cents less than the IPO and 14 cents less than the last CR ... all when the business is stronger than ever and holds the (unsecured) promise of 60% growth and a cash flow positive FY19.

    A strong Update/4C will bring investor confidence back. GLTAH R-7
    Last edited by R-7: 23/07/18
 
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