this stock is criminally undervalued. don't forget the 1mpta...

this stock is criminally undervalued. don't forget the 1mpta mine they bought from BTU (Mavis/Millenium), through a 50/50 JV. this started mining in 2H this year, and even though its lower grade, this should add significant incremental EBITDA even at much much lower prices than spot.

on my numbers this is under 1x EV/FCF at current spot. Even if prices for their main product fall roughly 50% from current levels, I think on an annualized basis they should easily earn a lot more than in 2018 (last good year).

i think it is quite likely that GEAR - Singapore holdco that owns 75% - takes out the minorities, somewhere in the $1.2-1.4 range, unless the stock gets up to fair value quite quickly ($2 i think).

look at the underperformance of this name vs other coal names last few months. its insane, totally a function of liquidity, and a couple of (now over) idiosyncratic issues.

this is v illiquid so its a small position for me, i simply cant buy a lot without moving it a lot more. but it seems v hard to lose $$ from the mid 90s on a 1yr view, imo.