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AlexeiI'm genuinely sorry to hear about that loss.three things...

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Al99

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12/04/23

15:59

Post #: 67239518
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Originally posted by alexei ii: ↑

its taken me some time to digest the results...both on and off the field.

LKR2 hitting water saturated Kingia is an utter surprise for me. Im pretty gutted. I too like others, could have bailed at 7c - but did not and left $600K on the table. But I went with my conviction.

I wont re-state the results. Read the announcements carefully. Unless they are blatantly lying, they hit water in the place of gas. That was a risk few of us saw (i did not). You can downplay results (they probably have), but you can't say there is water there instead of gas, without that being the case unless you outright lie.

Reconciling this result with the current takeover dynamics is also perplexing me, like it is others. If the EGM was asked to leave due to these results, that shows you how they roll at MIN, although the powers that be there have to ask themselves the question, would they have been better off drilling NED-1 first as planned and is this comeuppance for their sly tactics?

One interpretation is that LKR2 is situated in the northernmost "compartment" of the Lockyer Field. You could say the northernmost compartment is water wet below 4,007m TVDSS. The rest of the field may have a different (deeper) water table depth. Lead E will also have a different water table depth. WE - to the immediate south of Lead E has a water table depth of 4,650 m TVDSS

I note the Kingia was higher to prognosis 4,142m TVDSS compared to 4,250mTVDSS pre drill - this may imply additional faulting etc. The 3D seismic is now critical to understanding the GWC and distribution of gas (and oil) in the greater Lockyer structure.

NED-1 is still prospective, as it was before. For oil and gas imo. We would all have been better served if NED-1 was drilled first as they had originally planned.

Im now considering that MINs offer is reasonable and will be accepting. In doing so, I retain some exposure to the oil and gas upside here, and in the rest of the PB permits MIN has.

To those that so confidently predicted MIN will get 80%, thx for the heads up.

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Alexei

I'm genuinely sorry to hear about that loss.

three things come to mind on this.

1) Maybe they should have waited until after the 3D?
2) The higher pressures seem to have thrown out the interpretation of the GWC. Drilling beneath the LKG always carries a degree of risk.
3) Funny that nothing was mentioned about any shows in the Dongara/Wagina. They made a lot of noise about the potential here in the discovery well.

Luckily, you had the backstop of the bid, or that could have been a real disaster.

Cheers, AL

NWE Price at posting: 5.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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