Ann: MIN: Response to Norwest Target Statement, page-169

Let us say miraculously Chris Ellison withdraws after bid fails...

For myself,

The worse that can happen given we are so close to drill is a drop of about 10%. So out neutral price is 6c prior to drill.

If LD-2/3 drill bust. Say a 10% . Then the share price will be about 2c.
A success backing up LD-1, 70% chance then share price 8c.
if LD2/3 is indeterminate say 20% then share price 5c

if drill NED is a success, say 50% chance. Then share price adds say 5c..NED misses then adds 0c

So risk weighted share price is (0.1 x 2 + 0.7*8 +0.2*5). + (0.5*5 +0.5*0). = 9.3c

Chris should be paying a minium premium of 20% for control... So 1.2 *9.3c = 11c

Or about 800:1 MIN to NWE shares. Personally I don't mind Chris's tactics, he is trying to arrive at the best outcome for MIN share holders, presenting truths that benefit his case, making the negatives disappear. That is business when you are trying to buy an asset. Nothing I have seen is unusual in a takeover. Real world.

Would I sell for 1000:1 NWE:MIN... I would strongly consider.given my maths is all approximate... I am assuming the risk weighting for all other gas pools and oil is built into current share price because they are very early maturity and we can't really access their commercial reality.

Good luck to all shareholders, don't mind holding for all 3 drills if the offer isn't significantly improved Chris. Thanks for the phonecall from your friendly minions